See forecast projection

Who's it for: RevOps and sales leaders

Who can see this: Team members with a Forecast seat

Where to go:

• Deals > Analytics > Trends

• Deals > Forecast > forecast category > Forecast tab

Use our projection tool to forecast more accurately and understand where you'll land this month or quarter, or in a future period. While for forecasting you need to know your pipeline inside out, with projection, you can also use your historical sales to call a more precise number.

The tool enables you to project where you'll land based on:

• Closed-won deals - What you've already got in the bag, which is the sum of all qualifying closed-won deals, according to the target attainment defined in your forecast settings.

• Weighted pipeline - How much of your current open pipeline is expected to close. We look at the comparative time in the month or quarter you are in and give the deals in each stage of your current pipeline weight based on the historical conversion rate for the same time and stage. Read more about how we calculate conversion rates here.

• Expected deals - How many newly created, pulled-in, or pushed-in deals are anticipated to close. We weigh in expected newly created, pulled-in (from future periods), and pushed-in (from past periods) deals. Read more about expected deals here.

How much data do I need to get my projection?

Our research suggests that reliable projections - exceeding 90% accuracy - require at least 400 created opportunities, out of which 150 are closed-won deals, spanning over at least four quarters. In addition to these minimum requirements, be mindful of:

• CRM hygiene: Maintaining excellent CRM hygiene is essential for accurate forecast projections. With clean and up-to-date data, you can achieve a forecast accuracy of 5% to 10% by week 3. However, if the pipeline data is inaccurate and contains outdated opportunities, incorrect close dates, or inconsistent deal stages - your projection accuracy might be compromised.

• Forecast board (“line of business”) configuration changes: If you've recently updated your coverage or target attainment category definitions, it may affect your forecast projections. Please reach out to our support team to backfill your historical forecast analytics data based on the new definitions. Learn more about it here.

• Changes in sales stages: Significant adjustments to sales stages mapping within your CRM can also impact projection accuracy. If you've modified your sales stages, reach out to your CSM with the new stage mapping to align your historical data accordingly.

How it works

After you select a historical period to base the projection on, we use the historical conversion rates to calculate how much you're likely to close:

Each projection factors in:

• The line of business - our calculations are based on closed-won deals, the current pipeline, and historical data for the selected line of business.

• Close date - the current pipeline includes deals that are set to close in the selected period only.

• Team or individual - the current pipeline includes deals that are owned by the selected team or individual only.

Tips

Change the historical period to change the outlook

See how factors such as market fluctuations and seasonal variations affect the forecast. Business segments with an evolving sales process or month-on-month forecasting might benefit from relying more heavily on the last quarter or month.

• Change the historical period that the projection is based on, and see how conversion rates differ in different periods.

Check the projection weekly

See how the time in the quarter affects the projection.

At the beginning of the quarter, you lean on historical data more to call your number. As the quarter progresses and you close more deals in your pipeline, the projection is based increasingly on the current period.

• Come back regularly to learn how your closed-won deals change the projection over the quarter.

See the math

Drill into how we came to the projection number, based on the selected period.

• In the projection widget, click See the math.

  The side panel opens, showing the closed-won sales, weighted pipeline, and “Expected to come in and close” deals that go into the projected number.

• Select a different historical period to change the projection according to a different sales cycle.

About weighted pipeline

Weighted pipeline is calculated as follows:

The historical conversion rate for each stage is calculated for the same time in period:

1. We divide each quarter into 3 periods: month 1, month 2, month 3, and note which part of the current quarter you are in.

2. We compare the current pipeline per stage to the conversion rate* of the equivalent part of the historical quarter.

* Conversion rates reflect the number of deals that ended up being closed-won by the end of the quarter.

About “Expected to come in and close”

The amount in “Expected to come in and close” is calculated as follows:

Historical conversion rate is calculated as follows:

Note: When selecting more than one period as a baseline for projection on (for example, the last 2/3 Qs), the “Expected to come in and close” amounts reflects an average of those periods.

See the projection trend

See the trend for a selected period.

• Go to Deals > Analytics > Trends, and in the trend chart, turn on Projection.

   

Look at the future

Pick a future period in the Trends report page to see how your future pipeline in shaping up. You'll see the future period in the timeframe of the current quarter so that you can see the weekly progress toward the chosen period.

In "See the math", you’ll see the historical period the projection is based on (up to 4 quarters). Note that the base period is a closed period. This means that you'll see the projection for the future based on the closed period rather than the current period.

When looking at the closed-won deals, it is normal to see a zero figure. This indicates that you haven't yet closed any deals in the future period.

Coming soon

At the moment, looking at future forecast periods, the “Expected to come in and close” category does not include the aggregation of deals expected to be pushed-out of the current quarter. We're working on adding this to a future version of this report.

October 2024 update

We've improved the projection calculation to ensure it’s more precise and reliable:

• The “Expected to come in and close” category now includes changes in deal amount over time, reflecting updates made by salespeople during the forecasted period until closure.

• Deals opened and closed-won on the same day are now included in the projection numbers.

• Historical conversion rate calculation has been fine-tuned; it now uses deal amounts instead of deal count, providing a more accurate reflection of fluctuations and the impact of large deals.