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Forecast projection

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Naomi Papoushado
  • Updated

Where to go: Deals > Forecast > Trends

Use our projection tool to forecast more accurately and understand where you'll end the month or quarter. While for forecasting you need to know your pipeline inside out, with projection, you can also use your historical sales to call a more precise number.

The tool enables you to project where you'll land based on:

  • Actual sales - What you've already got in the bag, which is the sum of all qualifying closed-won deals, according to the target attainment defined in your Forecast settings.

  • Weighted pipeline - We look at the comparative time in the quarter you are in, and give the deals in each stage of your current pipeline weight based on the historical win rate for the same time and stage. Read more about how we calculate win rates below.

  • Expected deals - How much you can anticipate from newly-created, pulled-in, or pushed-in deals, based on the historical win rate for such deals in the chosen period. Read more about expected deals below.

How it works

After you select a previous period to base the projection on, we use the historical win rates to calculate how much you're likely to close.

Actual sales + Weighted pipeline by stage + Expected pipeline = Projection

Furthermore, each projection takes into account the following factors:

  • Line of business - our calculations are based on actual sales, the current pipeline, and historical data for the selected line of business.

  • Close date - the current pipeline includes deals that are set to close in the selected period only.

  • Team or individual - the current pipeline includes deals that are owned by the selected team or individual only.

Quick look

  1. Go to Deals > Forecast > Trends.

    The Projection widget is displayed alongside other insights

    tile.png

  2. Change the historical period if necessary.

See the projection trend

Turn on projection in the trend chart to see the trend over the selected period.

  • In the trend chart, select Forecast > Projection.

    Trendline with projection

See the math

Drill into how we came to the projection number, based on the selected period.

  • In the projection widget, click See the math.

    The side panel opens, showing the actual sales, weighted pipeline, and expected deals that go into the projected number.

  • Select a different historical period to change the projection according to a different sales cycle.

About weighted pipeline

Weighted pipeline is calculated as follows:

Weighted pipeline math

The historical win rate for each stage is calculated for the same time in period:

  1. We divide each quarter into 3 parts: month 1, month 2, month 3, and note which part of the current quarter you are in.

  2. We compare the current pipeline per stage to the win rate* of the equivalent part of the historical quarter.

* Win rate means how many open deals were closed-won by end of quarter.

Example

It is week 2 of the quarter (i.e. the first part), and your projection is using the previous quarter as the historical period. In the Weighted pipeline area, deals in the Discovery stage show a historical win rate of 19.1%.

How did we get this number?

We took the win rate of month 1 of the previous quarter, where there were 115 deals in Discovery in month 1. Of those, 22 were closed-won by the end of the quarter, giving a win rate of 19.1%.

About expected deals

Expected deals are deals that are created throughout the quarter, meaning they could be deals that are:

  • Newly created

  • Pulled in

  • Pushed in (if viewing a future period - coming soon!)

Expected deals are calculated as follows:

Unexpected deal math

  • Expected deals amount: The average value of expected deals for the historical period.

  • Expected deals win rate: The % of expected deals that were closed-won by end of quarter.

Example

It is week 5 of the quarter, and your projection is using the previous quarter as the historical period. In the Expected deals area, there's a projection of $6.7k.

How did we get this number?

We looked at the same week in the previous quarter, and saw that you had 45 expected deals that came in between this week and the end of quarter, with the average amount of $45k. Of these 45 expected deals, 15% were closed-won by the end of the quarter, giving a projection of $6.7k.

Note

When selecting more than 1 period to base the projection on (i.e. more than 1 quarter), the number of deals is also averaged.

Tips

Change the historical period to change the outlook:

See how factors such as market fluctuations and seasonal variations affect the forecast.

  • Change the historical period that the projection is based on.

    See how win rates differ in different periods.

Check the projection weekly

See how the time in the quarter affects the projection.

At the beginning of the quarter, you lean on historical data more to call your number. As the quarter progresses and you close more deals in your pipeline, the projection is based increasingly on your actuals.

  • Come back regularly to learn how your actual sales changes the projection over the quarter.

FAQ

How much data do you need to show a projection?

  • Projection number: To show an overall projection, we need to have 1 full quarter of historical data, and have enough deals to calculate your weighted pipeline.

    Note that even without a projection number, you may see information in Expected deals for the chosen period if you have partial data.

  • Weighted pipeline: To offer a number for weighted pipeline, we need to have at least 10 closed-won deals in over 50% of the pipeline stages in the historical period.

  • Expected deals: You must have at least 10 closed-won deals in the chosen historical period.